This article was originally written in December of 2024.
Assad’s fall in Syria symbolizes not only a political overturn, but also comes with geopolitical ramifications and even potential dangers to the Middle East power dynamics. Despite the obvious strategically advantageous light of this incident for countries like the US, Israel, and other Arab powers in the region, I’d argue it has even more significance as a potential reverberating origin point for even more troubles and challenges for the region.
Firstly, the fact that a ruling power that had established itself for over 5 decades has fallen foreshadows, in and of itself, the creation of some form of dangerous power vacuum. Projecting the aftermath of similar situations– Saddam Hussein’s fall in Iraq, Muammar Gaddafi’s ousting of Libya– it becomes pretty obvious that various rebel groups vying for this newly open spot for political power will lead to a genuine risk of extremism, chaos, lawlessness, instability and more.
On a more geopolitical scale, Assad’s exit actually severely undermines Iran’s influence in the region, as successful as it may be in value from an anti-authoritarian Western perspective. While many might assume that the fall of an authoritarian regime would signal the beginning of democratic reforms, the fragmented nature of the opposition to said power might make this process unclear, divided, and a separated struggle. In fact, I’d even go as far as to say the region most likely will not be able to take this opportunity to transition into democratic governance – sectarian violence and even more authoritarianism are all possibilities that cannot be ignored.
Lastly, the incident makes way for extreme levels of humanitarian issues. With devastation in infrastructure, casualties, economic, and political stability, Syria essentially needs to entirely rebuild a functioning society from the ground up. This event demonstrates that the fall of brutal authoritarianism does not necessarily lead to some form of magical immediate democratic success, in contrast to common beliefs. It is crucial to carefully consider external influences from both the west and the Middle East in the coming months, with the aftermath of Syria being uncertain. Democratic development lies in the hands of more than the singular fact that al-Assad has been overthrown.
